A non-partisan analysis of rising costs at the checkout and policy drivers behind Australia's food system
Australia's food system has undergone significant transformation over the past two decades, with supermarket prices becoming an increasingly pressing concern for households. While we've long prided ourselves on affordable, high-quality food, the reality is that many Australians now struggle with grocery costs that have consistently outpaced wage growth.
We must honestly examine what's driving these price increases beyond political talking points. Both major parties have oversimplified the challenges while failing to address the systemic issues in our food supply chain. Only by understanding the complex interplay of policy decisions, market concentration, and global factors can we develop effective solutions.
This timeline tracks food price increases against key policy decisions and market developments that have shaped Australia's food system.
Understanding the components driving food price increases is crucial to identifying meaningful solutions:
Contrary to common political narratives that blame either international factors or corporate greed exclusively, the evidence shows that Australia's food affordability crisis stems from a complex mix of policy failures, market concentration, and external pressures that require comprehensive solutions.
The relaxation of planning laws that facilitated the rapid expansion of major supermarket chains, concentrating market power.
Key Decision-Makers: State Planning Ministers and Competition Regulators across both Labor and Coalition governments
Impact: Reduced competition from independent grocers, with neighborhood store numbers declining by 60% since 1990
Alternative approach: Stronger planning protections for diverse retail ecosystems and local food markets
Approval of key acquisitions that further consolidated the food retail and processing sectors.
Key Decision-Makers: ACCC Chairs Graeme Samuel (Howard Govt) and Rod Sims (Abbott/Turnbull Govts)
Impact: Created one of the world's most concentrated food retail markets, with flow-on effects to producer prices and consumer choice
Alternative approach: More rigorous competition tests for mergers and stronger divestiture powers
Reduction in drought support and research funding for climate adaptation in agriculture.
Key Decision-Makers: Agriculture Ministers Joe Ludwig (Labor) and Barnaby Joyce (Coalition)
Impact: Reduced sector resilience to climate shocks, leading to supply shortages and price spikes during extreme weather events
Alternative approach: Long-term investment in climate-resilient farming systems and water infrastructure
Failure to address critical vulnerabilities in food supply chains exposed during the pandemic.
Key Decision-Makers: Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese
Impact: Ongoing shortages of key products and higher prices due to supply disruptions
Alternative approach: Strategic food security planning with domestic manufacturing capability for essential items
Food prices vary significantly across Australia, with rural and remote communities facing particularly severe challenges in both cost and access.
This steady increase in the food budget burden has particularly affected lower-income Australians, with the poorest 20% of households now spending over 25% of their income on food—creating real food insecurity in a nation that produces enough to feed 75 million people.
Australia's food price challenges stem from both market failures and policy shortcomings across the political spectrum:
"The best way to get prices down is to have a competitive market."— Coalition Treasurer, 2022 (while supermarket concentration continued to increase)
The Coalition has consistently prioritized "light touch" regulation of supermarkets while failing to address growing market concentration that undermines true competition. Their faith in market mechanisms overlooks the reality that Australia's food retail sector is far from a free market.
"We need to ensure consumers are getting a fair deal at the checkout."— Labor Minister, 2023 (while initiating the 11th review of supermarket practices in 20 years)
Meanwhile, Labor has often focused on consumer protection rhetoric without tackling the structural power imbalances in the food system that ultimately drive price increases. Their numerous reviews have led to few substantive changes in market dynamics.
The uncomfortable truth is that both major parties have been reluctant to challenge the market power of the major supermarket chains due to their economic influence and lobbying power. Only an independent voice can speak honestly about the need for structural reform of Australia's food system without fear of corporate backlash.
Your independent representative, should fight for comprehensive food system reform based on evidence: