Food Prices

A non-partisan analysis of rising costs at the checkout and policy drivers behind Australia's food system

Rising Costs at the Checkout

Australia's food system has undergone significant transformation over the past two decades, with supermarket prices becoming an increasingly pressing concern for households. While we've long prided ourselves on affordable, high-quality food, the reality is that many Australians now struggle with grocery costs that have consistently outpaced wage growth.

We must honestly examine what's driving these price increases beyond political talking points. Both major parties have oversimplified the challenges while failing to address the systemic issues in our food supply chain. Only by understanding the complex interplay of policy decisions, market concentration, and global factors can we develop effective solutions.

Food Price Journey (2000-2025)

This timeline tracks food price increases against key policy decisions and market developments that have shaped Australia's food system.

● Coalition Government Policies ● Labor Government Policies ● Market Developments

What's Driving Food Price Increases?

Understanding the components driving food price increases is crucial to identifying meaningful solutions:

  • Market concentration (30-35%): Australia has one of the most concentrated grocery retail sectors in the world, with Coles and Woolworths controlling approximately 66% of the market. This concentration allows major retailers to extract maximum value from both suppliers and consumers.
  • Input cost increases (20-25%): Fuel, fertilizer, and labor costs have risen significantly over the past decade, placing pressure on farmers and food processors.
  • Climate impacts (15-20%): Droughts, floods, and extreme weather events have disrupted agricultural production, creating supply shortages that drive up prices.
  • Supply chain inefficiencies (10-15%): Logistics challenges and intermediary markups add significant costs between farm and table, with farmers typically receiving only 10-15 cents of every dollar spent on food.
  • Global market volatility (5-10%): International commodity prices affect domestic food costs, particularly for grain-based products and imported goods.
  • Labor shortages (5-10%): Ongoing workforce gaps in agriculture have driven up production costs, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like horticulture.
  • Regulatory compliance (5%): Food safety and other regulations, while necessary, add to producer costs and are often disproportionately burdensome for smaller producers.

Contrary to common political narratives that blame either international factors or corporate greed exclusively, the evidence shows that Australia's food affordability crisis stems from a complex mix of policy failures, market concentration, and external pressures that require comprehensive solutions.

Key Policy Decisions That Shaped Today's Food System

Supermarket Deregulation (1990s-2000s)

The relaxation of planning laws that facilitated the rapid expansion of major supermarket chains, concentrating market power.

Key Decision-Makers: State Planning Ministers and Competition Regulators across both Labor and Coalition governments

Impact: Reduced competition from independent grocers, with neighborhood store numbers declining by 60% since 1990

Alternative approach: Stronger planning protections for diverse retail ecosystems and local food markets

Merger Approvals (2000-2015)

Approval of key acquisitions that further consolidated the food retail and processing sectors.

Key Decision-Makers: ACCC Chairs Graeme Samuel (Howard Govt) and Rod Sims (Abbott/Turnbull Govts)

Impact: Created one of the world's most concentrated food retail markets, with flow-on effects to producer prices and consumer choice

Alternative approach: More rigorous competition tests for mergers and stronger divestiture powers

Agricultural Policy Shifts (2010-2020)

Reduction in drought support and research funding for climate adaptation in agriculture.

Key Decision-Makers: Agriculture Ministers Joe Ludwig (Labor) and Barnaby Joyce (Coalition)

Impact: Reduced sector resilience to climate shocks, leading to supply shortages and price spikes during extreme weather events

Alternative approach: Long-term investment in climate-resilient farming systems and water infrastructure

Supply Chain Vulnerability (2020-2022)

Failure to address critical vulnerabilities in food supply chains exposed during the pandemic.

Key Decision-Makers: Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese

Impact: Ongoing shortages of key products and higher prices due to supply disruptions

Alternative approach: Strategic food security planning with domestic manufacturing capability for essential items

Food Price Variations Across Australia

Food prices vary significantly across Australia, with rural and remote communities facing particularly severe challenges in both cost and access.

The Growing Food Budget Burden

Food Budget: 2000

15.8%
Percentage of household income spent on food
$175
Weekly grocery bill for average family
14.2
Hours of work at minimum wage to pay weekly grocery bill

Food Budget: 2025

19.6%
Percentage of household income spent on food
$345
Weekly grocery bill for average family
18.5
Hours of work at minimum wage to pay weekly grocery bill

This steady increase in the food budget burden has particularly affected lower-income Australians, with the poorest 20% of households now spending over 25% of their income on food—creating real food insecurity in a nation that produces enough to feed 75 million people.

Beyond the Blame Game

Australia's food price challenges stem from both market failures and policy shortcomings across the political spectrum:

"The best way to get prices down is to have a competitive market."
— Coalition Treasurer, 2022 (while supermarket concentration continued to increase)

The Coalition has consistently prioritized "light touch" regulation of supermarkets while failing to address growing market concentration that undermines true competition. Their faith in market mechanisms overlooks the reality that Australia's food retail sector is far from a free market.

"We need to ensure consumers are getting a fair deal at the checkout."
— Labor Minister, 2023 (while initiating the 11th review of supermarket practices in 20 years)

Meanwhile, Labor has often focused on consumer protection rhetoric without tackling the structural power imbalances in the food system that ultimately drive price increases. Their numerous reviews have led to few substantive changes in market dynamics.

The uncomfortable truth is that both major parties have been reluctant to challenge the market power of the major supermarket chains due to their economic influence and lobbying power. Only an independent voice can speak honestly about the need for structural reform of Australia's food system without fear of corporate backlash.

Affordable Food for All

Your independent representative, should fight for comprehensive food system reform based on evidence:

  • Supermarket Regulation: Support a mandatory Supermarket Code of Conduct with meaningful penalties for unfair supplier treatment
  • Market Concentration: Advocate for stronger merger laws and potential divestiture powers to address existing market dominance
  • Producer Support: Champion direct investment in sustainable farming infrastructure that helps producers manage climate risk
  • Food Security Planning: Develop a National Food Security Strategy that identifies and addresses supply chain vulnerabilities
  • Regional Food Initiatives: Support community-based food initiatives that shorten supply chains and improve regional access
  • Price Monitoring: Establish an independent Food Price Monitor with powers to investigate unjustified price increases
  • Competition Enhancement: Fight for planning reforms that protect diverse food retail environments