Housing Policy

A non-partisan analysis of how government decisions have shaped Australia's housing system

Housing Affordability Crisis

Few issues affect Australians more fundamentally than housing affordability. Over the past 25 years, housing prices have more than tripled in real terms[1], with the average Australian home now costing 8.5 times the median annual household income[2] – making homeownership increasingly unattainable for younger generations.

We must move beyond the partisan blame game to have an honest conversation about how policy choices across the political spectrum have created this crisis. Both major parties have prioritized the interests of existing property owners over housing accessibility, and only an independent voice can speak this truth without political constraints.

The Housing Affordability Journey (2000-2025)

This timeline tracks housing price increases against key policy decisions made by different governments. The data reveals how housing has become increasingly unaffordable through distinct periods of government policy.

● Coalition Government Policies ● Labor Government Policies ● State Government Policies

What's Really Driving Housing Prices?

Understanding the components driving housing unaffordability is crucial to identifying meaningful solutions:

  • Planning restrictions (40-50%): Complex zoning laws and approval processes have severely constrained housing supply, adding between $150,000 and $500,000 to the price of homes in major cities according to Productivity Commission findings[3].
  • Tax incentives for investors (15-20%): Negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts have transformed housing from shelter to financial asset, with investors accounting for 32.8% of mortgage lending by 2022, up from 21% in 2000[4].
  • Population policy (10-15%): High migration rates without coordinated housing supply planning have created persistent demand pressure, with 79% of Australia's population growth concentrated in capital cities between 2011-2021[5].
  • Public housing decline (10%): Public housing has declined from 6.2% of all dwellings in 1991 to just 3.7% by 2021[6], removing a crucial safety valve from the housing system.
  • Short-term rentals and vacancy (5-10%): Approximately 11,200 entire homes were withdrawn from long-term rental markets for Airbnb usage in Sydney and Melbourne alone[7], while the 2021 Census identified over 1 million unoccupied dwellings[8].
  • Construction industry constraints (5-10%): Material costs increased 38.4% between 2019-2023[9], while industry concentration and labor shortages have limited supply responsiveness.

Contrary to common political narratives that blame either foreign buyers or interest rates, the evidence shows that structural policy failures across multiple domains have created a system that fundamentally favors property investment over housing's primary purpose as shelter.

Key Policy Decisions That Created Today's Housing Crisis

Public Housing Divestment (1996-2023)

Systematic reduction in public housing stock while waiting lists exploded, creating severe pressure on the private rental market.

Key Decision-Makers: Housing Ministers from Jocelyn Newman (Howard Govt) to Julie Collins (Albanese Govt)

Impact: Net loss of 20,000 public housing dwellings despite population growth; 163,500+ households now on waiting lists[10]

Alternative approach: Major reinvestment in public housing as both social infrastructure and economic stimulus, as successfully implemented in many comparable nations.

Negative Gearing & CGT Discount (1999-present)

Tax policies that transformed housing from shelter to investment asset by heavily favoring property investors over owner-occupiers and renters.

Key Decision-Makers: Treasurer Peter Costello (implementation); Treasurers Morrison, Frydenberg, Chalmers (defense of the system)

Impact: Investors now control 32.8% of the mortgage market, up from 21% in 2000, house prices rose 80% in Sydney and Melbourne from 2001 - 2004

Alternative approach: Targeted tax reforms to level the playing field between first-home buyers and investors, while grandfathering existing arrangements.

Planning System Paralysis (2000-2023)

Increasingly complex and restrictive planning systems at state and local levels that severely constrain housing supply while adding significant costs and delays.

Key Decision-Makers: State Planning Ministers incl. Rob Stokes (NSW), Richard Wynne (VIC), Mick de Brenni (QLD)

Impact: Approval timeframes of 18-24 months for housing projects; zoning restrictions adding $150k-$500k to home prices[11]

Alternative approach: Comprehensive planning reform with standardized approval pathways and reduced third-party objection rights for compliant developments.

Migration-Housing Disconnect (2008-2023)

Population policy divorced from housing capacity, with record migration levels implemented without corresponding housing supply planning.

Key Decision-Makers: Immigration Ministers from Chris Evans to Clare O'Neil; Prime Ministers Rudd, Morrison, Albanese

Impact: Population growth of 518,000 in 2022-23 alone while housing construction declined[12]

Alternative approach: Coordinated national framework linking migration intake to demonstrated housing capacity and infrastructure readiness.

Housing Affordability Across Australia

Housing affordability varies significantly across Australia, reflecting differences in supply constraints, economic opportunities, and policy approaches at state and local levels.

The Generational Divide

First Home Buyers: 1990

3.0x
Average home price to income ratio[13]
3 years
Time to save 20% deposit on average salary
23%
Portion of income spent on mortgage payments

First Home Buyers: 2025

8.5x
Average home price to income ratio
12+ years
Time to save 20% deposit on average salary[14]
44%
Portion of income spent on mortgage payments[15]

This dramatic generational inequity stems directly from policy choices that have consistently favored existing property owners over new entrants. The price-to-income ratio has nearly tripled, the deposit hurdle has quadrupled, and mortgage burden has nearly doubled – effectively locking an entire generation out of the housing market their parents accessed with relative ease.

Beyond the Blame Game

Australia's housing affordability crisis is not the result of inevitable market forces but rather the predictable outcome of deliberate policy choices made by governments from both major parties:

"I want to see first homeowners being able to get into the housing market."
— Scott Morrison, Prime Minister, 2022 (after implementing HomeBuilder program that economists warned would inflate prices)

The Coalition has consistently defended negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions while claiming concern about housing affordability – policies that Treasury's own analysis showed predominantly benefited wealthier investors at the expense of first-home buyers.

"We need to tackle the housing crisis in Australia head on."
— Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister, 2023 (while presiding over record migration without corresponding housing supply measures)

Meanwhile, Labor has repeatedly promised transformative housing policy while delivering modest programs that fail to address the fundamental supply-demand imbalance, avoiding political risk while housing becomes increasingly unaffordable.

The harsh reality is that both major parties have calculated that the political interests of existing homeowners – who represent the majority of voters – outweigh the needs of those priced out of the market. Only an independent voice can speak this uncomfortable truth without fear of alienating powerful industry groups or mortgage-holding voters.

My Position: Housing for All

Look for a representative that would fight for comprehensive housing reform based on evidence rather than political calculation:

  • Tax Reform: Phase out negative gearing for new investments while grandfathering existing arrangements, redirect tax benefits toward purpose-built affordable rental housing, and review the capital gains tax discount to reduce speculative investment.
  • Public Housing: Commit to a 10-year program to restore public housing to at least 6% of housing stock through direct government investment, recognizing its crucial role in both social welfare and market stabilization.
  • Planning Reform: Support standardized state planning codes that enable "missing middle" housing by right in appropriate locations, with reduced opportunities for vexatious objections and streamlined approval pathways.
  • Vacancy & Short-term Rentals: Implement effective vacancy taxes and short-term rental regulations modeled on international best practices, ensuring housing is used primarily for shelter rather than speculation.
  • Population Policy: Advocate for a coordinated national framework linking migration intake to demonstrated housing capacity and infrastructure readiness at the regional level.
  • First Home Buyers: Support targeted assistance that doesn't inflate prices, such as shared equity schemes with price caps and location requirements designed to stimulate construction rather than bidding wars.

There are no simple solutions that allow everyone to win – meaningful reform will require challenging vested interests and confronting the uncomfortable reality that housing cannot simultaneously be a guaranteed high-return investment asset and affordable shelter accessible to all Australians.

References

  1. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023). Residential Property Price Index, Australia. ABS Cat. No. 6416.0.
  2. CoreLogic (2023). Housing Affordability Report, June 2023. CoreLogic Australia.
  3. Kendall, R., & Tulip, P. (2018). The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper.
  4. Reserve Bank of Australia (2023). Financial Stability Review, April 2023. RBA.
  5. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2022). Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2020-21. ABS.
  6. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2023). Housing Assistance in Australia 2023. AIHW.
  7. Crommelin, L., Troy, L., Martin, C., & Pettit, C. (2018). Is Airbnb a Sharing Economy Superstar? Evidence from Five Global Cities. Urban Policy and Research, 36(4), 429-444.
  8. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2021). Census of Population and Housing: Data Summary. ABS.
  9. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023). Producer Price Indexes, Australia, June 2023. ABS.
  10. Productivity Commission (2022). Report on Government Services 2022: Housing and Homelessness. Australian Government.
  11. Productivity Commission (2023). Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation: Planning, Zoning and Development Assessments. Australian Government.
  12. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023). Overseas Migration, Australia, March 2023. ABS.
  13. Reserve Bank of Australia (2022). Historical Housing Price Data. RBA Statistical Tables.
  14. CoreLogic & ANZ (2023). Housing Affordability Report 2023. ANZ CoreLogic.
  15. Reserve Bank of Australia (2023). Statistical Tables: Household Finances - Selected Ratios. RBA.